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Cairo Algo MNQ

Futures · Futures · Started Mar 2025

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
16.0%
Max Drawdown
22.5%
Trades
395
Win Trades
26.1%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
52.6%
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Trend-following Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20253.126.82.5-4.7-0.94.55.6-3.00.2-2.732.0
2026-1.60.8-6.8-4.2-1.24.91.42.5-1.1-5.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/27/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$120,000
Age18 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades395
# Profitable103
% Profitable26.1%
Avg trade duration1.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown22.5%
drawdown periodOct 20, 2025 - July 02, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)16.0%
Avg win$1,655
Avg loss$487

Ratios

W:L ratio1.20
Sharpe Ratio0.70
Sortino Ratio1.39
Calmar Ratio0.94

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.11
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life34.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-9.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)16.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)18.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity17.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss22.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated98.8%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)388
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)836
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)520

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$487
Avg Win$1,655
# Winners103
Sum Trade PL (losers)$142,233
Sum Trade PL (winners)$170,476
Num Months Winners10
# Losers292
% Winners26.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table19

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)101.75
Avg Position Time (hrs)1.70
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago4

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.62
Daily leverage (max)14.83

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.11
Treynor Index0.35

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-8.36
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.21
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.17
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.23
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.21
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.65
df15
t0.79
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.36
Sortino ratio2.20
Upside Potential Ratio4.39
Upside part of mean0.42
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms9
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance-0.01
r-0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.78
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.38
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error14
t(b)-1.29
p(b)0.66
t(a)1.29
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.00
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.27
Jensen alpha (a)0.38
Mean0.17
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.58
df15
t0.71
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.31
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.29
Sortino ratio1.74
Upside Potential Ratio3.92
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms9
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance-0.01
r-0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.70
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error14
t(b)-1.25
p(b)0.66
t(a)1.19
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.87
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.24
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.16
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.89
df370
t1.06
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.54
Sortino ratio1.90
Upside Potential Ratio10.00
Upside part of mean0.85
Downside part of mean-0.69
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms111
N negative terms260
N of observations371
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error369
t(b)2.02
p(b)0.02
t(a)0.92
p(a)0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.44
Treynor index (mean / b)1.45
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
Mean0.15
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.82
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.81
df370
t0.97
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.46
Sortino ratio1.70
Upside Potential Ratio9.77
Upside part of mean0.84
Downside part of mean-0.69
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms111
N negative terms260
N of observations371
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.00
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error369
t(b)1.79
p(b)0.04
t(a)0.85
p(a)0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.42
Treynor index (mean / b)1.49
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.10
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.59
df130
t-0.42
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.18
Sortino ratio-0.99
Upside Potential Ratio7.41
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.84
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms36
N negative terms95
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion-0.10
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.11
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)0.62
p(b)0.47
t(a)-0.47
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.53
Jensen alpha (a)-0.11
Mean-0.11
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.67
df130
t-0.48
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.10
Sortino ratio-1.12
Upside Potential Ratio7.24
Upside part of mean0.73
Downside part of mean-0.85
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms36
N negative terms95
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.11
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.12
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)0.60
p(b)0.47
t(a)-0.53
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.80
Jensen alpha (a)-0.12
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations16
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.97
Median1.00
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.32
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.12
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.32
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-19.87
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations371
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low27
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high49
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high17
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.53
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.08
Median0.11
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.07
Median0.09
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-380211968
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)255
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.33
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.33
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.56
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.20
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.19
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.94
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.36
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.64
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.67
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.67
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.81

Trading record

Placed 1336 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ U6long5Sep 14, 2026Sep 14, 2026($102)
MNQ U6short4Sep 8, 2026Sep 8, 2026$981
MNQ U6short4Sep 4, 2026Sep 4, 2026($350)
MNQ U6long15Sep 3, 2026Sep 3, 2026($583)
MNQ U6long9Sep 3, 2026Sep 3, 2026($235)
MNQ U6long9Sep 1, 2026Sep 1, 2026($623)
MNQ U6short8Sep 1, 2026Sep 1, 2026($462)
MNQ U6long3Aug 28, 2026Aug 28, 2026($238)
MNQ U6long4Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026($292)
MNQ U6long3Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026($237)
MNQ U6long4Aug 24, 2026Aug 24, 2026($237)
MNQ U6short8Aug 24, 2026Aug 24, 2026$894
MNQ U6long1Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026($127)
MNQ U6long1Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026($324)
MNQ U6short4Aug 19, 2026Aug 19, 2026($832)
MNQ U6short4Aug 18, 2026Aug 18, 2026$83
MNQ U6short8Aug 17, 2026Aug 17, 2026$358
MNQ U6short4Aug 17, 2026Aug 17, 2026($266)
MNQ U6short4Aug 14, 2026Aug 14, 2026($271)
MNQ U6long2Aug 14, 2026Aug 14, 2026($173)
MNQ U6long8Aug 13, 2026Aug 13, 2026($842)
MNQ U6short4Aug 12, 2026Aug 12, 2026$37
MNQ U6short8Aug 11, 2026Aug 11, 2026($295)
MNQ U6short4Aug 11, 2026Aug 11, 2026($216)
MNQ U6short4Aug 11, 2026Aug 11, 2026($72)
MNQ U6long1Aug 10, 2026Aug 10, 2026($117)
MNQ U6long1Aug 10, 2026Aug 10, 2026($164)
MNQ U6short4Aug 10, 2026Aug 10, 2026($701)
MNQ U6long3Aug 7, 2026Aug 7, 2026($383)
MNQ U6long1Aug 7, 2026Aug 7, 2026$14

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.