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Falcon V3 US Indices

Futures · Started Sep 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-5.8%
Max Drawdown
46.0%
Trades
519
Win Trades
32.2%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
52.0%
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Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2024-1.2-3.10.814.210.2
20254.6-2.9-2.71.31.3-3.1-2.80.1-4.5-3.4-11.7-11.6-31.2
2026-7.30.30.96.54.01.8-6.716.12.217.1

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/19/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age24 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades519
# Profitable167
% Profitable32.2%
Avg trade duration1.8 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown46.0%
drawdown periodJan 31, 2025 - April 13, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)-5.8%
Avg win$375
Avg loss$181

Ratios

W:L ratio0.99
Sharpe Ratio-0.16
Sortino Ratio-0.25
Calmar Ratio-0.05

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.15
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life33.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-44.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-5.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-1.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity33.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.9%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)394
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)786
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)520

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$181
Avg Win$375
# Winners167
Sum Trade PL (losers)$63,639
Sum Trade PL (winners)$62,690
Num Months Winners13
# Losers352
% Winners32.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table25

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)107.47
Avg Position Time (hrs)1.79
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago0

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)5.91
Daily leverage (max)15.05

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta0.23
Treynor Index-0.06

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-8.29
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.80
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.31
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.17
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.05
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.23
df22
t-0.32
p0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.19
Sortino ratio-0.32
Upside Potential Ratio1.67
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms12
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion-0.05
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error21
t(b)0.90
p(b)0.38
t(a)-0.54
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.18
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
Mean-0.07
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.33
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.32
df22
t-0.45
p0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.10
Sortino ratio-0.43
Upside Potential Ratio1.54
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms12
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error21
t(b)0.83
p(b)0.39
t(a)-0.63
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.27
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean-0.02
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.08
df507
t-0.12
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.32
Sortino ratio-0.13
Upside Potential Ratio7.17
Upside part of mean1.09
Downside part of mean-1.11
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms163
N negative terms345
N of observations508
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error506
t(b)3.66
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.31
p(a)0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.09
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean-0.05
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.20
df507
t-0.28
p0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.21
Sortino ratio-0.31
Upside Potential Ratio6.94
Upside part of mean1.08
Downside part of mean-1.13
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms163
N negative terms345
N of observations508
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion-0.05
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error506
t(b)3.63
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.45
p(a)0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.21
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.48
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.43
df130
t1.01
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.20
Sortino ratio2.45
Upside Potential Ratio9.72
Upside part of mean1.89
Downside part of mean-1.41
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms70
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.48
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.01
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.59
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.34
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error129
t(b)2.96
p(b)0.34
t(a)0.74
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.25
Treynor index (mean / b)0.81
Jensen alpha (a)0.34
Mean0.42
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.28
df130
t0.91
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.05
Sortino ratio2.13
Upside Potential Ratio9.34
Upside part of mean1.85
Downside part of mean-1.43
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms70
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.01
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.58
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error129
t(b)2.95
p(b)0.34
t(a)0.64
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.72
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations23
Minimum0.87
Quartile 10.96
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.43
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations508
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low35
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high57
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.32
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.14
Median0.21
Quartile 30.28
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.36
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.40
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.40
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (moments method)3.73
Extreme Value Index (regression method)6.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)3.78
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.07
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-386426688
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)437
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.10
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.32
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.05
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.08
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.66
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.50
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.57
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.64
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.64
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.40

Trading record

Placed 2188 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ U6long4Sep 17, 2026Sep 17, 2026$276
MNQ U6long1Sep 17, 2026Sep 17, 2026$11
MNQ U6short1Sep 16, 2026Sep 16, 2026$619
MNQ U6short1Sep 16, 2026Sep 16, 2026($196)
MNQ U6long3Sep 16, 2026Sep 16, 2026$546
MNQ U6long2Sep 14, 2026Sep 14, 2026($10)
MNQ U6long1Sep 14, 2026Sep 14, 2026($111)
MNQ U6long2Sep 11, 2026Sep 11, 2026($159)
MNQ U6long3Sep 11, 2026Sep 11, 2026($201)
MNQ U6short1Sep 8, 2026Sep 8, 2026$178
MNQ U6short1Sep 4, 2026Sep 4, 2026$80
MNQ U6short1Sep 4, 2026Sep 4, 2026$24
MNQ U6long4Sep 4, 2026Sep 4, 2026($254)
MNQ U6long3Sep 3, 2026Sep 3, 2026$201
MNQ U6short1Sep 3, 2026Sep 3, 2026($226)
MNQ U6long2Sep 3, 2026Sep 3, 2026($261)
MNQ U6long4Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026$153
MNQ U6short1Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026($83)
MNQ U6short1Aug 25, 2026Aug 25, 2026($44)
MNQ U6long1Aug 25, 2026Aug 25, 2026($40)
MNQ U6short1Aug 25, 2026Aug 25, 2026($107)
MNQ U6short1Aug 25, 2026Aug 25, 2026$74
MNQ U6long3Aug 25, 2026Aug 25, 2026($329)
MNQ U6long1Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026($39)
MNQ U6short1Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026($19)
MNQ U6long1Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026($77)
MNQ U6short1Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026($224)
MNQ U6long1Aug 17, 2026Aug 17, 2026$15
MNQ U6long3Aug 13, 2026Aug 13, 2026$603
MNQ U6short1Aug 12, 2026Aug 12, 2026$26

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.